Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 59¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$3.9K
$168.5
51.6¢ → 59¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-24 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
339h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tunatyler | Noavg 48¢ | $678.28 | $833.72 | +$155.44 | 57% 894-676 (1570) |
AN anciano | Noavg 49¢ | $254.23 | $767 | +$23.76 | 52% 1154-1067 (2221) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 42.4¢ | $741.5 | $717.5 | -$24 | 56% 18365-14704 (33069) |
GA Gaditima | Noavg 59¢ | $665.34 | $665.27 | -$0.07 | 48% 6235-6891 (13126) |
ME Melody626CTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $521.83 | $534.88 | +$13.05 | 58% 708-523 (1231) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 37.1¢ | $285.84 | $272.43 | +$20.72 | 50% 1694-1679 (3373) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $117.58 | $97.18 | -$20.4 | 70% 3200-1386 (4586) |
tunatylerInvested
$678.28
Value
$833.72
PnL
+$155.44
Record
57%
894-676 (1570)
Invested
$254.23
Value
$767
PnL
+$23.76
Record
52%
1154-1067 (2221)
Invested
$741.5
Value
$717.5
PnL
-$24
Record
56%
18365-14704 (33069)
Invested
$665.34
Value
$665.27
PnL
-$0.07
Record
48%
6235-6891 (13126)
Invested
$521.83
Value
$534.88
PnL
+$13.05
Record
58%
708-523 (1231)
Invested
$285.84
Value
$272.43
PnL
+$20.72
Record
50%
1694-1679 (3373)
Invested
$117.58
Value
$97.18
PnL
-$20.4
Record
70%
3200-1386 (4586)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.