Will the Republican Party win the MI-01 House seat?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 88¢ · $469 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$468.62
$50.01
79.1¢ → 88¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Yesavg 75¢ | $252.75 | $296.56 | +$43.81 | 53% 1578-1415 (2993) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 85.7¢ | $101.15 | $123.21 | +$2.5 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $44 | $44 | +$0 | 42% 5373-7412 (12785) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.8¢ | $1.1 | $4.8 | +$3.7 | 48% 9385-10270 (19655) |
Invested
$252.75
Value
$296.56
PnL
+$43.81
Record
53%
1578-1415 (2993)
Invested
$101.15
Value
$123.21
PnL
+$2.5
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
Invested
$44
Value
$44
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
5373-7412 (12785)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$3.7
Record
48%
9385-10270 (19655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.