Will the Republican Party win the MI-01 House seat?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.1K
$17.08
83.2¢ → 88¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Yesavg 86.5¢ | $539.51 | $548.95 | +$9.44 | 45% 2390-2958 (5348) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 75¢ | $923 | $296.56 | +$43.81 | 53% 1578-1414 (2992) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 86.2¢ | $140.01 | $123.21 | +$2.5 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $44 | $44 | +$0 | 42% 5367-7400 (12767) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $77.83 | $35.86 | -$41.97 | 61% 284-183 (467) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.8¢ | $1.1 | $4.4 | +$3.3 | 48% 9199-10116 (19315) |
Invested
$539.51
Value
$548.95
PnL
+$9.44
Record
45%
2390-2958 (5348)
Invested
$923
Value
$296.56
PnL
+$43.81
Record
53%
1578-1414 (2992)
Invested
$140.01
Value
$123.21
PnL
+$2.5
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
Invested
$44
Value
$44
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
5367-7400 (12767)
Invested
$77.83
Value
$35.86
PnL
-$41.97
Record
61%
284-183 (467)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$3.3
Record
48%
9199-10116 (19315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.