Will the Republican Party win the FL-21 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.9K
$78.71
86.9¢ → 88¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 88%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
331h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 87.6¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$2.2 | 61% 203-131 (334) |
HO HotDogs | Yesavg 84¢ | $420 | $435 | +$20 | 94% 441-28 (469) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Yesavg 87¢ | $348 | $350 | +$2 | 69% 141-63 (204) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 8¢ | $139.84 | $198.72 | +$58.88 | 53% 6441-5643 (12084) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.38 | +$0.03 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
Invested
$1,922.59
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$2.2
Record
61%
203-131 (334)
Invested
$420
Value
$435
PnL
+$20
Record
94%
441-28 (469)
Invested
$348
Value
$350
PnL
+$2
Record
69%
141-63 (204)
Invested
$139.84
Value
$198.72
PnL
+$58.88
Record
53%
6441-5643 (12084)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.