Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 30¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$70.82
Research grade
NeutralNo at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 71.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$13.94 | 21% 300-1139 (1439) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 71.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$37.8 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 29¢ | $635.01 | $659.58 | +$23.86 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 27.9¢ | $497.93 | $562.96 | +$65.03 | 53% 6479-5682 (12161) |
SB sbimbg | Yesavg 67¢ | $132.66 | $138.45 | +$5.79 | 70% 3143-1354 (4497) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$2,232.27
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$13.94
Record
21%
300-1139 (1439)
Both legs:
Invested
$497.93
Value
$562.96
PnL
+$65.03
Record
53%
6479-5682 (12161)
Invested
$132.66
Value
$138.45
PnL
+$5.79
Record
70%
3143-1354 (4497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.