Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.1K
$5.64
83.9¢ → 85¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Noavg 84¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$0 | 66% 725-373 (1098) |
 Seutervoinen | Noavg 82.5¢ | $218.58 | $225.23 | +$6.66 | 84% 285-55 (340) |
SI singularitymanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $70.03 | $70.03 | +$0 | 42% 137-191 (328) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $20.23 | $20.23 | +$0 | 36% 273-477 (750) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $11.84 | $10.82 | -$1.01 | — |
Invested
$2,712.89
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
725-373 (1098)
SeutervoinenInvested
$218.58
Value
$225.23
PnL
+$6.66
Record
84%
285-55 (340)
Invested
$70.03
Value
$70.03
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
137-191 (328)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.23
Value
$20.23
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
273-477 (750)
Invested
$11.84
Value
$10.82
PnL
-$1.01
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.