Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 65¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$6.4K
-$47.4
64.1¢ → 65¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
643h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$51.76 | 47% 473-533 (1006) |
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 63.7¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$59.13 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
SB sbimbg | Yesavg 69¢ | $470.48 | $456.85 | -$44.32 | 70% 3187-1369 (4556) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $36.08 | $73.7 | -$10.45 | 73% 3598-1329 (4927) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Yesavg 60.7¢ | $68.9 | $70.63 | -$0.02 | 53% 1560-1360 (2920) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 36.2¢ | $1.16 | $1.18 | +$0.02 | 52% 5043-4710 (9753) |
Invested
$2,982.75
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$51.76
Record
47%
473-533 (1006)
Invested
$2,805.81
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$59.13
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$470.48
Value
$456.85
PnL
-$44.32
Record
70%
3187-1369 (4556)
Invested
$36.08
Value
$73.7
PnL
-$10.45
Record
73%
3598-1329 (4927)
Invested
$68.9
Value
$70.63
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
1560-1360 (2920)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$1.18
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
5043-4710 (9753)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.