Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$33.59

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,560

Combined PnL+$26.5

Yes3 traders

Total Value$139.18

Total Shares1,587

Combined PnL+$7.09

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Noavg 90.8¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	+$26.5	69% 803-359 (1162)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$52.4	$61.05	+$8.65	18% 530-2380 (2910)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$43.44	$59.73	-$2.72	50% 2566-2608 (5174)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$18.4	$18.4	+$1.15	70% 3143-1356 (4499)

mrworldwide

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$26.5

Record

69%

803-359 (1162)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.4

Value

$61.05

PnL

+$8.65

Record

18%

530-2380 (2910)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.44

Value

$59.73

PnL

-$2.72

Record

50%

2566-2608 (5174)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$1.15

Record

70%

3143-1356 (4499)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.4%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.