Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 68¢ · $617 held · ends Nov 4

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$617.37

Combined PnL

$33.24

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 68¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$602.6

Total Shares886

Combined PnL+$32.78

No1 trader

Total Value$14.77

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$0.46

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

319h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 64¢	$245.83	$261.02	+$15.19	53% 6132-5384 (11516)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 63.3¢	$196.39	$210.78	+$14.39	50% 1630-1606 (3236)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 65.9¢	$123.01	$126.89	+$3.89	—
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$14.31	$14.77	+$0.46	— 7-11 (18)
Ryxon21<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$4.6	$3.91	-$0.69	71% 305-127 (432)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$245.83

Value

$261.02

PnL

+$15.19

Record

53%

6132-5384 (11516)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$196.39

Value

$210.78

PnL

+$14.39

Record

50%

1630-1606 (3236)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$123.01

Value

$126.89

PnL

+$3.89

Record

—

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Invested

$14.31

Value

$14.77

PnL

+$0.46

Record

—

7-11 (18)

Ryxon21<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.6

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.69

Record

71%

305-127 (432)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

319h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.9%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.