Will the Republican Party control the Texas Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $207 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$207.5
$53.11
64.7¢ → 98.4¢
+52% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO notgoodluck | Yesavg 95.4¢ | $124.02 | $128.18 | +$3.84 | 62% 233-142 (375) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $8.82 | $74.26 | +$65.44 | 75% 13065-4252 (17317) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $18.34 | $4.18 | -$14.16 | 53% 23170-20401 (43571) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Noavg 0.3¢ | $1.57 | $0.86 | -$2 | 47% 2258-2536 (4794) |
Invested
$124.02
Value
$128.18
PnL
+$3.84
Record
62%
233-142 (375)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.82
Value
$74.26
PnL
+$65.44
Record
75%
13065-4252 (17317)
Invested
$18.34
Value
$4.18
PnL
-$14.16
Record
53%
23170-20401 (43571)
Invested
$1.57
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$2
Record
47%
2258-2536 (4794)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.