Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 0%-3%?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $393 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$392.53
-$11.63
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.86 | $99.9 | +$0.04 | 60% 11537-7729 (19266) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $69.85 | $69.93 | +$0.08 | 61% 15690-10006 (25696) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.91 | $59.94 | +$0.03 | 48% 8595-9145 (17740) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $57.55 | $57.55 | -$0 | 55% 4354-3545 (7899) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $30.44 | $30.57 | +$0.13 | 79% 12035-3234 (15269) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.93 | $29.97 | +$0.04 | 51% 3511-3414 (6925) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 50% 9541-9557 (19098) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.02 | $12.02 | -$0 | 73% 13523-5052 (18575) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $14.62 | $2.68 | -$11.94 | 45% 2415-2986 (5401) |
Invested
$99.86
Value
$99.9
PnL
+$0.04
Record
60%
11537-7729 (19266)
Invested
$69.85
Value
$69.93
PnL
+$0.08
Record
61%
15690-10006 (25696)
Invested
$59.91
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
8595-9145 (17740)
Invested
$57.55
Value
$57.55
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
4354-3545 (7899)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$30.44
Value
$30.57
PnL
+$0.13
Record
79%
12035-3234 (15269)
Invested
$29.93
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
3511-3414 (6925)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
9541-9557 (19098)
Invested
$12.02
Value
$12.02
PnL
-$0
Record
73%
13523-5052 (18575)
Invested
$14.62
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$11.94
Record
45%
2415-2986 (5401)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
qwen300.fund
No — $99.9
northdrawer
No — $69.93
smallreceipt
No — $59.94
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $57.55
Lucerys
No — $30.57
haveagoodday
No — $29.97
quietparcel
No — $29.97
e46m3
No — $12.02
0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938
CTRYes — $2.68