Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WV-01 House election by 5%-15%?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$169.96
$60.98
92.1¢ → 96.8¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $82.45 | $79.82 | -$2.64 | 50% 9031-9106 (18137) |
 fkpa | Noavg 82.6¢ | $380.76 | $57.28 | +$64.59 | — 1-0 (1) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $18.78 | -$0.62 | 53% 3156-2749 (5905) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $9.69 | $9.39 | -$0.3 | 43% 5953-7860 (13813) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $4.75 | $4.69 | -$0.05 | 56% 5852-4578 (10430) |
Invested
$82.45
Value
$79.82
PnL
-$2.64
Record
50%
9031-9106 (18137)
fkpaInvested
$380.76
Value
$57.28
PnL
+$64.59
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$18.78
PnL
-$0.62
Record
53%
3156-2749 (5905)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$9.39
PnL
-$0.3
Record
43%
5953-7860 (13813)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$0.05
Record
56%
5852-4578 (10430)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.