Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-12 House election by 20%-25%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $581 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$581.11
$128.21
64.1¢ → 97.3¢
+52% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
399h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 66.2¢ | $191.47 | $285.66 | +$94.19 | 55% 18-15 (33) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 55.3¢ | $110.17 | $209.2 | +$99.02 | 47% 4087-4643 (8730) |
 RayGuy<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $38.52 | $39.37 | +$0.83 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100 | Noavg 63.8¢ | $19.56 | $26.88 | +$7.32 | 43% 15-20 (35) |
LA lava-lavaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $89.64 | $18.97 | -$71.37 | 43% 602-790 (1392) |
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $2.07 | $0.36 | -$1.78 | 36% 102-180 (282) |
Invested
$191.47
Value
$285.66
PnL
+$94.19
Record
55%
18-15 (33)
Invested
$110.17
Value
$209.2
PnL
+$99.02
Record
47%
4087-4643 (8730)
RayGuy<$100Invested
$38.52
Value
$39.37
PnL
+$0.83
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$19.56
Value
$26.88
PnL
+$7.32
Record
43%
15-20 (35)
Invested
$89.64
Value
$18.97
PnL
-$71.37
Record
43%
602-790 (1392)
Invested
$2.07
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$1.78
Record
36%
102-180 (282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.