Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-05 House election by 0%-5%?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 91¢ · $789 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$789.29
$247.62
65.3¢ → 91.4¢
+40% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HolyMoses7 | Yesavg 85.7¢ | $493.56 | $526.23 | +$31.35 | 50% 1753-1780 (3533) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Yesavg 42.4¢ | $15.68 | $108.38 | +$84.25 | 45% 2965-3664 (6629) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100 | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $11.66 | $72.81 | +$61.53 | 32% 8-17 (25) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $5.97 | $54.84 | +$48.87 | 47% 4061-4609 (8670) |
RA RadioCCOD<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.05 | $22.85 | +$22.66 | 32% 81-170 (251) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Yes | $3 | $3 | +$4.32 | 43% 8739-11399 (20138) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $16.53 | $1.17 | -$5.36 | 19% 2872-12252 (15124) |
HolyMoses7Invested
$493.56
Value
$526.23
PnL
+$31.35
Record
50%
1753-1780 (3533)
Invested
$15.68
Value
$108.38
PnL
+$84.25
Record
45%
2965-3664 (6629)
Invested
$11.66
Value
$72.81
PnL
+$61.53
Record
32%
8-17 (25)
Invested
$5.97
Value
$54.84
PnL
+$48.87
Record
47%
4061-4609 (8670)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$22.85
PnL
+$22.66
Record
32%
81-170 (251)
Invested
$3
Value
$3
PnL
+$4.32
Record
43%
8739-11399 (20138)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$16.53
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$5.36
Record
19%
2872-12252 (15124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.