Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-04 House election by 15%-20%?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 88¢ · $154 held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$154.29
$127.31
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 84¢ | $21 | $138.72 | +$139.22 | 45% 2390-2958 (5348) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $22.58 | $11.97 | -$10.6 | 55% 4996-4062 (9058) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $4.9 | $3.6 | -$1.3 | 59% 3620-2510 (6130) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.