Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-05 House election by 9%-12%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $64 held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$64.42
-$10.02
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $31.6 | $39.64 | +$8.04 | 49% 8976-9501 (18477) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $23.75 | $20.38 | -$0.02 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
 RayGuyCTR | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $172 | $2.58 | -$10.42 | 84% 21-4 (25) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $115.39 | $1.79 | -$7.09 | — 7-10 (17) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $0.58 | $0.04 | -$0.54 | 50% 9910-9917 (19827) |
Invested
$31.6
Value
$39.64
PnL
+$8.04
Record
49%
8976-9501 (18477)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$23.75
Value
$20.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
RayGuyCTRInvested
$172
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$10.42
Record
84%
21-4 (25)
Invested
$115.39
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$7.09
Record
—
7-10 (17)
Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.54
Record
50%
9910-9917 (19827)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.