Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$133.72
-$520.07
6.5¢ → 0.5¢
-92% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
327h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PI pieped<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $67.62 | $70.08 | +$2.21 | 41% 74-107 (181) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $551.1 | $50.46 | -$500.65 | 45% 2314-2839 (5153) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $11.61 | $6.32 | -$5.29 | 59% 3560-2474 (6034) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $2.56 | $5.24 | -$1.52 | 21% 2284-8684 (10968) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $9.97 | $0.78 | -$9.2 | 23% 177-599 (776) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $6.28 | $0.65 | -$5.63 | 72% 8553-3324 (11877) |
Invested
$67.62
Value
$70.08
PnL
+$2.21
Record
41%
74-107 (181)
Invested
$551.1
Value
$50.46
PnL
-$500.65
Record
45%
2314-2839 (5153)
Invested
$11.61
Value
$6.32
PnL
-$5.29
Record
59%
3560-2474 (6034)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.56
Value
$5.24
PnL
-$1.52
Record
21%
2284-8684 (10968)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$9.2
Record
23%
177-599 (776)
Invested
$6.28
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$5.63
Record
72%
8553-3324 (11877)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.