Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $784 held · ends Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$784.45

Combined PnL

-$353.49

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 98.2¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$631.81

Total Shares643

Combined PnL+$2.62

Yes4 traders

Total Value$152.44

Total Shares8,051

Combined PnL-$356.11

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TY Tysha	Noavg 96.6¢	$193.2	$196.1	+$2.9	72% 8554-3325 (11879)
Lucerys	Noavg 98.6¢	$188.74	$188.37	-$0.37	79% 10621-2765 (13386)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yes	$131.65	$131.65	-$349.6	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 98.4¢	$127.92	$127.99	+$0.07	49% 7454-7779 (15233)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$73.95	$73.8	-$0.15	49% 9048-9543 (18591)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$29.35	$29.42	+$0.07	42% 5989-8172 (14161)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$16.02	$16.13	+$0.11	57% 16832-12621 (29453)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$26.63	$15.55	-$8.76	59% 3562-2476 (6038)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.43	$5.08	+$2.54	72% 6934-2740 (9674)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.45	$0.16	-$0.29	38% 495-815 (1310)

Tysha

Invested

$193.2

Value

$196.1

PnL

+$2.9

Record

72%

8554-3325 (11879)

Lucerys

Invested

$188.74

Value

$188.37

PnL

-$0.37

Record

79%

10621-2765 (13386)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$131.65

Value

$131.65

PnL

-$349.6

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

mildwindow27

Invested

$127.92

Value

$127.99

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

7454-7779 (15233)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$73.95

Value

$73.8

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

9048-9543 (18591)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.35

Value

$29.42

PnL

+$0.07

Record

42%

5989-8172 (14161)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$16.02

Value

$16.13

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

16832-12621 (29453)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.63

Value

$15.55

PnL

-$8.76

Record

59%

3562-2476 (6038)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$2.54

Record

72%

6934-2740 (9674)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.29

Record

38%

495-815 (1310)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.