Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $335 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$335.1

Combined PnL

-$522.06

Smart Money Entry

6.5¢ → 0.7¢

-90% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$282.07

Total Shares284

Combined PnL-$1.26

Yes4 traders

Total Value$53.03

Total Shares8,838

Combined PnL-$520.8

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

328h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.7¢	$178.66	$178.09	-$0.57	61% 13859-8713 (22572)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$59.81	$59.64	-$0.17	50% 7811-7861 (15672)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$538.29	$45.44	-$492.85	45% 2314-2840 (5154)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$44.85	$44.33	-$0.52	37% 685-1150 (1835)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$11.22	$5.84	-$5.38	59% 3562-2476 (6038)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$19.67	$1.42	-$18.25	30% 2189-5039 (7228)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$4.65	$0.34	-$4.32	23% 177-601 (778)

northdrawer

Invested

$178.66

Value

$178.09

PnL

-$0.57

Record

61%

13859-8713 (22572)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$59.81

Value

$59.64

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

7811-7861 (15672)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$538.29

Value

$45.44

PnL

-$492.85

Record

45%

2314-2840 (5154)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$44.85

Value

$44.33

PnL

-$0.52

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.22

Value

$5.84

PnL

-$5.38

Record

59%

3562-2476 (6038)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.67

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$18.25

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.65

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$4.32

Record

23%

177-601 (778)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

328h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5731.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5831.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.