Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$95.08

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 56¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,251

Combined PnL+$73.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$462.94

Total Shares1,047

Combined PnL+$21.25

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

701h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cocococococo	Noavg 57¢	$949.02	$932.39	-$16.64	52% 1670-1541 (3211)
DirkDiggler67	Noavg 51¢	$849.38	$932.38	+$83	60% 493-330 (823)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 58.4¢	$276.57	$260.84	-$15.72	53% 7652-6774 (14426)
ST StraddleSellerCTR	Yesavg 42.5¢	$177.58	$188	+$10.42	61% 185-119 (304)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$8.5	$157.96	+$3.59	67% 3639-1809 (5448)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 55.8¢	$128.69	$126.79	-$1.91	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 44¢	$100.58	$125.68	+$25.1	54% 21895-19024 (40919)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.3¢	$93	$99	+$6	49% 2613-2674 (5287)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$17.14	$17.97	+$1.24	50% 1324-1332 (2656)

cocococococo

Invested

$949.02

Value

$932.39

PnL

-$16.64

Record

52%

1670-1541 (3211)

DirkDiggler67

Invested

$849.38

Value

$932.38

PnL

+$83

Record

60%

493-330 (823)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$276.57

Value

$260.84

PnL

-$15.72

Record

53%

7652-6774 (14426)

StraddleSellerCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.58

Value

$188

PnL

+$10.42

Record

61%

185-119 (304)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

$157.96

PnL

+$3.59

Record

67%

3639-1809 (5448)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$128.69

Value

$126.79

PnL

-$1.91

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

cigarettes

Invested

$100.58

Value

$125.68

PnL

+$25.1

Record

54%

21895-19024 (40919)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93

Value

$99

PnL

+$6

Record

49%

2613-2674 (5287)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.14

Value

$17.97

PnL

+$1.24

Record

50%

1324-1332 (2656)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

701h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.0%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$72.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

172.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.