Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Tennessee Senate election by 10%-15%?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 3.2¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$490.84

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 3.2¢

-96% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$458.31

Total Shares427

Combined PnL+$31.62

Yes5 traders

Total Value$728.34

Total Shares754

Combined PnL+$459.22

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Noavg 82.5¢	$404.87	$349.21	-$11.41	14% 513-3102 (3615)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 15.4¢	$534.76	$298.55	+$209.94	45% 2914-3563 (6477)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 46.6¢	$91.37	$189.24	+$97.86	59% 3795-2636 (6431)
RayGuy	Yesavg 95¢	$45.62	$116.5	+$53.94	84% 21-4 (25)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 89¢	$168.47	$107.03	+$76.4	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 29.9¢	$20.45	$66.13	+$46.15	56% 624-483 (1107)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$6.6	$57.93	+$51.33	55% 16-13 (29)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 86¢	$40	$1.38	-$33.02	69% 7195-3179 (10374)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$1.04	$0.69	-$0.35	53% 23170-20401 (43571)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$404.87

Value

$349.21

PnL

-$11.41

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$534.76

Value

$298.55

PnL

+$209.94

Record

45%

2914-3563 (6477)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$91.37

Value

$189.24

PnL

+$97.86

Record

59%

3795-2636 (6431)

RayGuy

Yes

Invested

$45.62

Value

$116.5

PnL

+$53.94

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$168.47

Value

$107.03

PnL

+$76.4

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.45

Value

$66.13

PnL

+$46.15

Record

56%

624-483 (1107)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$57.93

PnL

+$51.33

Record

55%

16-13 (29)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$33.02

Record

69%

7195-3179 (10374)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.4%

3.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2193.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

2293.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.