Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$154.44
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.3¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$21.54 | 20% 329-1356 (1685) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$263.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$241.84 | |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 67¢ | $266.08 | $436.85 | -$81.98 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $163.39 | $383.11 | +$219.72 | 60% 3370-2270 (5640) |
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $29.34 | $49.58 | +$16.7 | 62% 45-28 (73) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$2,855.43
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$21.54
Record
20%
329-1356 (1685)
Both legs:
Invested
$266.08
Value
$436.85
PnL
-$81.98
Record
73%
6697-2416 (9113)
Invested
$163.39
Value
$383.11
PnL
+$219.72
Record
60%
3370-2270 (5640)
Invested
$29.34
Value
$49.58
PnL
+$16.7
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.