Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $443 held · ended Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$443.35

Combined PnL

$271.69

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$437.91

Total Shares485

Combined PnL+$339.85

No2 traders

Total Value$5.44

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$68.16

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 11.3¢	$88.3	$145.36	+$59.06	45% 2910-3559 (6469)
E4 e46m3	Yesavg 10.8¢	$15.13	$116.95	+$101.82	72% 14217-5492 (19709)
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 15.4¢	$96.9	$114.47	+$91.01	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$13.07	$44.97	+$72.47	55% 16-13 (29)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$11.4	$11.23	+$11	69% 7189-3175 (10364)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$5	$4.93	+$4.49	59% 3792-2625 (6417)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 48.9¢	$73.38	$4.8	-$68.58	51% 3760-3612 (7372)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$0.22	$0.64	+$0.42	39% 3153-4977 (8130)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$88.3

Value

$145.36

PnL

+$59.06

Record

45%

2910-3559 (6469)

e46m3

Yes

Invested

$15.13

Value

$116.95

PnL

+$101.82

Record

72%

14217-5492 (19709)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$96.9

Value

$114.47

PnL

+$91.01

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.07

Value

$44.97

PnL

+$72.47

Record

55%

16-13 (29)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$11

Record

69%

7189-3175 (10364)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$4.49

Record

59%

3792-2625 (6417)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$73.38

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$68.58

Record

51%

3760-3612 (7372)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.42

Record

39%

3153-4977 (8130)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.