Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 10%-15%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 2.4¢ · $79 held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$78.9
$332.61
20.9¢ → 2.5¢
-88% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $82.7 | $62 | -$20.7 | 17% 4495-21985 (26480) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $907.4 | $8.96 | +$212.91 | 32% 8-17 (25) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $201.81 | $7.92 | +$140.39 | 34% 19149-36800 (55949) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.