Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 0%-3%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $571 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$571.23
-$89.46
85.1¢ → 86.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $304.28 | $301.78 | -$2.5 | 45% 2388-2952 (5340) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $262.22 | $169.64 | -$92.58 | 41% 76-108 (184) |
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 83.1¢ | $299 | $94.29 | +$3.67 | 20% 2358-9226 (11584) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $108.38 | $5.1 | +$1.95 | 72% 12503-4935 (17438) |
Invested
$304.28
Value
$301.78
PnL
-$2.5
Record
45%
2388-2952 (5340)
Invested
$262.22
Value
$169.64
PnL
-$92.58
Record
41%
76-108 (184)
LornaPredictsInvested
$299
Value
$94.29
PnL
+$3.67
Record
20%
2358-9226 (11584)
Invested
$108.38
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$1.95
Record
72%
12503-4935 (17438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.