Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$3.6K
$15.23
91¢ → 90.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 90.9¢ | $2.5K | $1.1K | +$10.14 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
PL plumbis | Noavg 91.1¢ | $911 | $908 | -$3 | 61% 45-29 (74) |
 JJo | Noavg 91.4¢ | $913.99 | $907.99 | +$5.5 | 66% 932-490 (1422) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 90.1¢ | $540.6 | $543.6 | +$3 | — 2-5 (7) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $80.1 | $79.52 | -$0.58 | 42% 1535-2102 (3637) |
 elmcap2<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $20.72 | $20.86 | +$0.14 | 89% 1628-200 (1828) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $7.23 | $7.26 | +$0.03 | 56% 10604-8367 (18971) |
Invested
$2,457.85
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.14
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
Invested
$911
Value
$908
PnL
-$3
Record
61%
45-29 (74)
JJoInvested
$913.99
Value
$907.99
PnL
+$5.5
Record
66%
932-490 (1422)
Invested
$540.6
Value
$543.6
PnL
+$3
Record
—
2-5 (7)
Invested
$80.1
Value
$79.52
PnL
-$0.58
Record
42%
1535-2102 (3637)
elmcap2<$100Invested
$20.72
Value
$20.86
PnL
+$0.14
Record
89%
1628-200 (1828)
Invested
$7.23
Value
$7.26
PnL
+$0.03
Record
56%
10604-8367 (18971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.