Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0%-0.3%?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $414 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$413.73
$0.08
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 99.9¢ | $238.93 | $238.93 | +$0 | 33% 7-14 (21) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $44.92 | $44.96 | +$0.05 | — 9-0 (9) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.97 | +$0.06 | 28% 109-285 (394) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 17% 79-376 (455) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 25% 83-244 (327) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.98 | +$0.02 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.97 | -$0.01 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
probabilityInvested
$238.93
Value
$238.93
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
7-14 (21)
Invested
$44.92
Value
$44.96
PnL
+$0.05
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.06
Record
28%
109-285 (394)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
17%
79-376 (455)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
25%
83-244 (327)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.