Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 20¢ · $663 held · ends Nov 3

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$663.45

Combined PnL

-$125.57

Smart Money Entry

28¢ → 20¢

-29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$561.85

Total Shares2,878

Combined PnL-$125.46

No2 traders

Total Value$101.6

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$0.11

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 29.1¢	$573.27	$464.49	-$108.78	52% 1646-1520 (3166)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$79.39	$70	-$9.39	50% 2544-2586 (5130)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 79¢	$55.32	$56.37	+$1.05	31% 292-648 (940)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$46.39	$45.23	-$1.16	42% 133-183 (316)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.3¢	$34.65	$27.36	-$7.29	50% 1647-1630 (3277)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$573.27

Value

$464.49

PnL

-$108.78

Record

52%

1646-1520 (3166)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.39

Value

$70

PnL

-$9.39

Record

50%

2544-2586 (5130)

klli27<$100

Invested

$55.32

Value

$56.37

PnL

+$1.05

Record

31%

292-648 (940)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$46.39

Value

$45.23

PnL

-$1.16

Record

42%

133-183 (316)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.65

Value

$27.36

PnL

-$7.29

Record

50%

1647-1630 (3277)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.7%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$361.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

461.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.