Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$3.0K
$279.07
72.2¢ → 86¢
+19% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 70.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$339.71 | 50% 1219-1210 (2429) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $19.43 | $621.44 | -$142.89 | 42% 74-104 (178) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 82¢ | $327.17 | $345.23 | +$18.06 | 53% 7522-6644 (14166) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $123.98 | $237.66 | +$64.18 | 59% 3551-2461 (6012) |
Invested
$1,478.65
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$339.71
Record
50%
1219-1210 (2429)
Invested
$19.43
Value
$621.44
PnL
-$142.89
Record
42%
74-104 (178)
Invested
$327.17
Value
$345.23
PnL
+$18.06
Record
53%
7522-6644 (14166)
Invested
$123.98
Value
$237.66
PnL
+$64.18
Record
59%
3551-2461 (6012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.