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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 20%-25%?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
SIGNAL
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Consensus Traders
0
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes36%
No64%
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance37.8%
35.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$164.68
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
264.7
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xab16773b...34a2a7
Slug
will-the-republican-party-candidate-win-the-2026-ky-04-house-election-by-20-25