Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 10%-15%?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 37¢ · $639 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$638.93
$291
67.3¢ → 36.5¢
-46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
60h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RayGuy | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $38 | $354.47 | +$225.6 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 59.9¢ | $36.7 | $118.42 | +$81.72 | 34% 19169-36810 (55979) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 76¢ | $100.32 | $56.17 | -$44.15 | 69% 7207-3189 (10396) |
RA RadioCCOD<$100 | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $10.5 | $41.36 | +$30.86 | 32% 81-170 (251) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $46.8 | $25.53 | -$23.16 | 53% 8553-7624 (16177) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $236.2 | $22.98 | +$20.54 | 32% 8-17 (25) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $20.4 | $20 | -$0.4 | 19% 2871-12245 (15116) |
RayGuyInvested
$38
Value
$354.47
PnL
+$225.6
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$36.7
Value
$118.42
PnL
+$81.72
Record
34%
19169-36810 (55979)
Invested
$100.32
Value
$56.17
PnL
-$44.15
Record
69%
7207-3189 (10396)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$41.36
PnL
+$30.86
Record
32%
81-170 (251)
Invested
$46.8
Value
$25.53
PnL
-$23.16
Record
53%
8553-7624 (16177)
Invested
$236.2
Value
$22.98
PnL
+$20.54
Record
32%
8-17 (25)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$20.4
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.4
Record
19%
2871-12245 (15116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.