Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 0%-5%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $597 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$596.78
$134.96
71.4¢ → 99.9¢
+40% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 65¢ | $100.1 | $350.45 | +$124.21 | 69% 7209-3191 (10400) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 80.3¢ | $120.11 | $189.31 | +$39.21 | 53% 23719-20885 (44604) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $49.58 | $56.83 | +$7.24 | 45% 2992-3689 (6681) |
LA lava-lavaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $35.91 | $0.2 | -$35.71 | 43% 597-790 (1387) |
Invested
$100.1
Value
$350.45
PnL
+$124.21
Record
69%
7209-3191 (10400)
Invested
$120.11
Value
$189.31
PnL
+$39.21
Record
53%
23719-20885 (44604)
Invested
$49.58
Value
$56.83
PnL
+$7.24
Record
45%
2992-3689 (6681)
Invested
$35.91
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$35.71
Record
43%
597-790 (1387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.