Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $383 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$382.6
$22.88
91.7¢ → 92.4¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 92.4¢ | $203.2 | $200 | -$1.99 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $128 | $130.31 | +$2.31 | 45% 2314-2842 (5156) |
TR TrueDignityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $29.72 | $52.28 | +$22.56 | 37% 45-78 (123) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.