Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $952 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$952.2
-$7.32
82.4¢ → 82¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-40 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
234h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalek | Noavg 81.5¢ | $407.5 | $410 | +$2.5 | 56% 955-755 (1710) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 83.7¢ | $400 | $328.98 | -$6.9 | 25% 283-842 (1125) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $90.03 | $105.92 | -$10.59 | 50% 937-949 (1886) |
PI piepedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $88.2 | $81.92 | -$6.28 | 43% 65-87 (152) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $11.43 | $25.38 | +$13.95 | 42% 137-189 (326) |
RememberAmalekInvested
$407.5
Value
$410
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
955-755 (1710)
IstarothInvested
$400
Value
$328.98
PnL
-$6.9
Record
25%
283-842 (1125)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$90.03
Value
$105.92
PnL
-$10.59
Record
50%
937-949 (1886)
Invested
$88.2
Value
$81.92
PnL
-$6.28
Record
43%
65-87 (152)
Invested
$11.43
Value
$25.38
PnL
+$13.95
Record
42%
137-189 (326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.