Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 28¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$329.24

Smart Money Entry

24.1¢ → 28.5¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,943

Combined PnL+$329.64

No3 traders

Total Value$58.19

Total Shares72

Combined PnL-$0.4

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 24.7¢	$903.86	$1.2K	+$284.42	43% 65-87 (152)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$36.42	$48.49	+$12.07	50% 937-949 (1886)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$11.43	$44.59	+$33.16	42% 135-186 (321)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 69¢	$30.51	$30.23	-$0	26% 281-782 (1063)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Noavg 68¢	$26.76	$26.56	-$0.2	36% 2027-3623 (5650)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70¢	$8.54	$1.4	-$0.2	57% 13139-10017 (23156)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$903.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$284.42

Record

43%

65-87 (152)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.42

Value

$48.49

PnL

+$12.07

Record

50%

937-949 (1886)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.43

Value

$44.59

PnL

+$33.16

Record

42%

135-186 (321)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$30.51

Value

$30.23

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

281-782 (1063)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

$26.76

Value

$26.56

PnL

-$0.2

Record

36%

2027-3623 (5650)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

13139-10017 (23156)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.3%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$229.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

329.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.