Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 45%-50%?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $733 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$732.86
$125.17
87.8¢ → 98.4¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl | Noavg 85.9¢ | $700 | $518.56 | +$65.63 | — 7-10 (17) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $51.55 | $50 | -$0.91 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $47.53 | $49.18 | +$1.7 | 50% 9910-9917 (19827) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $40.86 | $41.31 | +$0.45 | 49% 8976-9501 (18477) |
AN anciano<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $38.71 | $41.05 | +$2.46 | 53% 1393-1212 (2605) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $24.92 | $27.54 | +$2.62 | 31% 3549-7932 (11481) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yes | $3.69 | $3.69 | +$58.74 | 41% 6389-9361 (15750) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $6.43 | $1.2 | -$5.23 | 18% 4425-20750 (25175) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $0.62 | $0.33 | -$0.29 | 27% 549-1474 (2023) |
Invested
$700
Value
$518.56
PnL
+$65.63
Record
—
7-10 (17)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$51.55
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.91
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
Invested
$47.53
Value
$49.18
PnL
+$1.7
Record
50%
9910-9917 (19827)
Invested
$40.86
Value
$41.31
PnL
+$0.45
Record
49%
8976-9501 (18477)
Invested
$38.71
Value
$41.05
PnL
+$2.46
Record
53%
1393-1212 (2605)
Invested
$24.92
Value
$27.54
PnL
+$2.62
Record
31%
3549-7932 (11481)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$3.69
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$58.74
Record
41%
6389-9361 (15750)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$6.43
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$5.23
Record
18%
4425-20750 (25175)
Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0.29
Record
27%
549-1474 (2023)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.