Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 30%-35%?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 99¢ · $207 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$206.94
$110.65
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
85h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 78.6¢ | $166.74 | $201.33 | +$34.59 | 17% 4496-22003 (26499) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $630.52 | $3.16 | +$87.03 | 32% 8-17 (25) |
LA lava-lavaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $15.27 | $1.33 | -$13.94 | 43% 592-781 (1373) |
 thanksforplayinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.1¢ | $10.33 | $0.5 | +$1.6 | 56% 694-551 (1245) |
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $3.08 | $0.41 | +$2.67 | 32% 81-170 (251) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.01 | $0.22 | -$1.3 | 26% 562-1635 (2197) |
2B9SInvested
$166.74
Value
$201.33
PnL
+$34.59
Record
17%
4496-22003 (26499)
Invested
$630.52
Value
$3.16
PnL
+$87.03
Record
32%
8-17 (25)
Invested
$15.27
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$13.94
Record
43%
592-781 (1373)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100Invested
$10.33
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$1.6
Record
56%
694-551 (1245)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$0.41
PnL
+$2.67
Record
32%
81-170 (251)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$1.3
Record
26%
562-1635 (2197)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.