Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 15%-18%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $149 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$149.1
-$4.52
98.8¢ → 99.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 98.5¢ | $138.71 | $109.78 | +$1.38 | 49% 8958-9484 (18442) |
 XAE12Archangel<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $20 | $19.93 | +$0.11 | 65% 805-425 (1230) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.7 | $9.07 | -$0 | 76% 13009-4160 (17169) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.89 | $8.87 | -$0.02 | 51% 6344-5977 (12321) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $4.29 | $1.36 | -$2.92 | 42% 3184-4363 (7547) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.08 | $0.08 | -$3.07 | 50% 9890-9904 (19794) |
Invested
$138.71
Value
$109.78
PnL
+$1.38
Record
49%
8958-9484 (18442)
XAE12Archangel<$100Invested
$20
Value
$19.93
PnL
+$0.11
Record
65%
805-425 (1230)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$18.7
Value
$9.07
PnL
-$0
Record
76%
13009-4160 (17169)
Invested
$8.89
Value
$8.87
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
6344-5977 (12321)
Invested
$4.29
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$2.92
Record
42%
3184-4363 (7547)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$3.07
Record
50%
9890-9904 (19794)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.