Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $700 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$700.34
$4.06
93.9¢ → 92.9¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 94.3¢ | $351.4 | $346.59 | -$4.81 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
CO cocococococo | Noavg 93.4¢ | $285.63 | $284.27 | -$1.66 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $24.95 | $29.25 | +$4.3 | 59% 3437-2346 (5783) |
TR TrueDignityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $25.44 | $29.04 | +$3.6 | 37% 44-76 (120) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $8.8 | $11.2 | +$2.64 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
balthazarInvested
$351.4
Value
$346.59
PnL
-$4.81
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$285.63
Value
$284.27
PnL
-$1.66
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$24.95
Value
$29.25
PnL
+$4.3
Record
59%
3437-2346 (5783)
Invested
$25.44
Value
$29.04
PnL
+$3.6
Record
37%
44-76 (120)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$2.64
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.