Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 87¢ · $783 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$782.83
$24.87
82.4¢ → 86.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cocococococo | Noavg 86¢ | $414.16 | $416.62 | +$2.46 | 52% 1656-1527 (3183) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $150.29 | $151.72 | -$5.95 | — 1-0 (1) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 80¢ | $139.2 | $139.2 | +$11.31 | — |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $56.97 | $67.3 | +$15.81 | 67% 4141-2004 (6145) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $7.39 | $7.99 | +$1.25 | 62% 2185-1326 (3511) |
Invested
$414.16
Value
$416.62
PnL
+$2.46
Record
52%
1656-1527 (3183)
fkpaCTRInvested
$150.29
Value
$151.72
PnL
-$5.95
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$139.2
Value
$139.2
PnL
+$11.31
Record
—
Car<$100Invested
$56.97
Value
$67.3
PnL
+$15.81
Record
67%
4141-2004 (6145)
Invested
$7.39
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$1.25
Record
62%
2185-1326 (3511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.