Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 83¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$36.45
80.1¢ → 82.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cocococococo | Noavg 81.5¢ | $614.17 | $621.56 | +$7.39 | 52% 1649-1523 (3172) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 79.7¢ | $219.98 | $216.65 | -$2.48 | 21% 292-1070 (1362) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $176.88 | $198.75 | +$21.86 | — 1-0 (1) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $51.86 | $62 | +$10.13 | 67% 4141-2004 (6145) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $16.2 | $15.75 | -$0.45 | 61% 20914-13310 (34224) |
Invested
$614.17
Value
$621.56
PnL
+$7.39
Record
52%
1649-1523 (3172)
IstarothInvested
$219.98
Value
$216.65
PnL
-$2.48
Record
21%
292-1070 (1362)
fkpaCTRInvested
$176.88
Value
$198.75
PnL
+$21.86
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Car<$100Invested
$51.86
Value
$62
PnL
+$10.13
Record
67%
4141-2004 (6145)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$16.2
Value
$15.75
PnL
-$0.45
Record
61%
20914-13310 (34224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.