Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Attorney General election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 25¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$249.76
-$9.6
26.3¢ → 25¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Noavg 25.1¢ | $131.68 | $131.01 | -$0.68 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $95.76 | $85.5 | -$8.55 | 25% 185-554 (739) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $32.32 | $32 | -$0.32 | 16% 247-1263 (1510) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $1.25 | -$0.05 | 50% 8062-8069 (16131) |
Invested
$131.68
Value
$131.01
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
Invested
$95.76
Value
$85.5
PnL
-$8.55
Record
25%
185-554 (739)
Invested
$32.32
Value
$32
PnL
-$0.32
Record
16%
247-1263 (1510)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
8062-8069 (16131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.