Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-28 House election by 5%-10%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 38¢ · $89 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$89.2
-$26.39
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HolyMoses7<$100 | Yesavg 95¢ | $56 | $36.85 | -$19.92 | 54% 1673-1422 (3095) |
 RayGuy<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $38 | $23.18 | +$20.33 | 84% 21-4 (25) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $50.42 | $23.08 | -$27.34 | 20% 2781-10948 (13729) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $6.17 | $5.07 | -$0.09 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $0.39 | $1.02 | +$0.63 | 27% 549-1474 (2023) |
HolyMoses7<$100Invested
$56
Value
$36.85
PnL
-$19.92
Record
54%
1673-1422 (3095)
RayGuy<$100Invested
$38
Value
$23.18
PnL
+$20.33
Record
84%
21-4 (25)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$50.42
Value
$23.08
PnL
-$27.34
Record
20%
2781-10948 (13729)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$6.17
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0.09
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0.63
Record
27%
549-1474 (2023)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.