Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-06 House election by 20%-25%?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 47¢ · $276 held · ended Nov 4

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$275.82

Combined PnL

$49.1

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$116.45

Total Shares270

Combined PnL+$71.79

No4 traders

Total Value$39.37

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$22.69

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$128.2	$120	-$0.88	14% 508-3080 (3588)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.6¢	$84.69	$66.78	-$17.93
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.4¢	$36.53	$53.22	+$17.05
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$155.21	$58.68	+$11.68	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$1.18	$46.22	+$39.32	54% 1673-1422 (3095)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$26.82	$16.7	-$10.12	47% 8497-9689 (18186)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 90¢	$26.11	$16.14	-$9.97	27% 549-1474 (2023)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$0.1	$8.91	+$8.81	59% 3792-2625 (6417)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 74¢	$7.4	$5.56	-$1.84	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$45.22	$2.65	+$11.98	55% 5066-4137 (9203)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99¢	$1.73	$0.97	-$0.76	39% 5787-9021 (14808)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$128.2

Value

$120

PnL

-$0.88

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

Both legs:

No$84.6970.6¢-$17.93

Yes$36.5330.4¢+$17.05

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.21

Value

$58.68

PnL

+$11.68

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$46.22

PnL

+$39.32

Record

54%

1673-1422 (3095)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$26.82

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$10.12

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$26.11

Value

$16.14

PnL

-$9.97

Record

27%

549-1474 (2023)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$8.81

Record

59%

3792-2625 (6417)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$1.84

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.22

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$11.98

Record

55%

5066-4137 (9203)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.76

Record

39%

5787-9021 (14808)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.5%

46.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

206.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.