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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-03 House election by 20%-25%?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
SIGNAL
📊
Open
Consensus Traders
0
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$299.23
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes23%
No77%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $321.6 | $299.23 | -$11.5 | 21% 292-1070 (1362) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.4¢ | $222.03 | $222.37 | +$0.25 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $87.83 | $76.85 | -$11.75 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance24.2%
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$312.54
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
412.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xb76b3eea...94cee6
Slug
will-the-republican-party-candidate-win-the-2026-ar-03-house-election-by-20-25