Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,000 on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.8K
-$151.7
94.6¢ → 99¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$153.08 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $51.44 | $52.28 | +$0.84 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $29.12 | $29.37 | +$0.25 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $9.51 | $9.55 | +$0.04 | 43% 387-516 (903) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $2.3 | $2.55 | +$0.24 | — 8-10 (18) |
Invested
$1,906.53
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$153.08
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
balthazar<$100Invested
$51.44
Value
$52.28
PnL
+$0.84
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$29.12
Value
$29.37
PnL
+$0.25
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$9.51
Value
$9.55
PnL
+$0.04
Record
43%
387-516 (903)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.24
Record
—
8-10 (18)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.