Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on November 15?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$3.56

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 37.2¢

-42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$726.3

Total Shares1,148

Combined PnL-$4.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.81

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$0.48

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO TokorCTR	Noavg 64.3¢	$656.33	$663	+$6.67	52% 135-126 (261)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$7.7K	$293.14	$-2.0K	69% 206-92 (298)
└ No leg	Noavg 98.2¢	$523.86	$200.77	$-2.5K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.4¢	$89.4	$92.37	+$531.82
0X 0xDB5CTR	Noavg 66.5¢	$126.99	$25.58	-$13.45	72% 137-54 (191)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$20.58	$14.95	+$1.4	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$8	$8.58	+$0.58	64% 188-106 (294)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$6	$6.44	+$0.44	56% 22-17 (39)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$3.75	$4.51	+$0.75	32% 281-585 (866)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$3.33	$3.81	+$0.48	46% 2814-3341 (6155)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$3.69	$3.25	-$0.44	67% 20-10 (30)

TokorCTR

Invested

$656.33

Value

$663

PnL

+$6.67

Record

52%

135-126 (261)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Invested

$7,706.95

Value

$293.14

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

69%

206-92 (298)

Both legs:

No$523.8698.2¢$-2.5K

Yes$89.460.4¢+$531.82

0xDB5CTR

Invested

$126.99

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$13.45

Record

72%

137-54 (191)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$20.58

Value

$14.95

PnL

+$1.4

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0.58

Record

64%

188-106 (294)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0.44

Record

56%

22-17 (39)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.75

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.48

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$0.44

Record

67%

20-10 (30)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.9%

37.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$150.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

250.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.