Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$129.24

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 95.2¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,601

Combined PnL-$71.4

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.95

Total Shares2,606

Combined PnL-$57.84

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 97.4¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	-$71.53	69% 182-81 (263)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$48.75	$49	+$0.25	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.81	-$0.06	— 10-4 (14)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$46.7	$6.98	-$39.73	49% 191-196 (387)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.13	$5.13	+$0	58% 726-520 (1246)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$4.88	$4.9	+$0.03	37% 1532-2611 (4143)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.77	-$0.08	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$22.35	$0.82	-$21.53	42% 2632-3661 (6293)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$2.47	$0.16	+$3.42	71% 120-49 (169)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$5,436.3

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$71.53

Record

69%

182-81 (263)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$48.75

Value

$49

PnL

+$0.25

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.81

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

10-4 (14)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.7

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$39.73

Record

49%

191-196 (387)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.03

Record

37%

1532-2611 (4143)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.35

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$21.53

Record

42%

2632-3661 (6293)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.47

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$3.42

Record

71%

120-49 (169)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.