Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on November 5?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$2.1K
$48.81
93.8¢ → 92.9¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$59.77 | 65% 3038-1616 (4654) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $39.02 | $27.55 | -$11.19 | 59% 2806-1922 (4728) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $26.31 | $24.75 | +$0.18 | 39% 313-489 (802) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $11.49 | $11.55 | +$0.06 | 52% 30722-28786 (59508) |
Invested
$1,990.33
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$59.77
Record
65%
3038-1616 (4654)
Invested
$39.02
Value
$27.55
PnL
-$11.19
Record
59%
2806-1922 (4728)
Invested
$26.31
Value
$24.75
PnL
+$0.18
Record
39%
313-489 (802)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$11.49
Value
$11.55
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
30722-28786 (59508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.