Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $257 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$256.59

Combined PnL

$211.53

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 98.9¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$256.48

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$211.44

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$0.08

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 60¢	$406.57	$131.68	+$207.25	69% 182-81 (263)
EA Eager47259<$100	Noavg 93¢	$49.29	$52.89	+$3.6	49% 191-196 (387)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$49.5	$49.9	+$0.4	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.98	+$0.18	29% 63-155 (218)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.11	$5.15	+$0.04	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.99	$4.96	-$0.03	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.91	$1.91	-$0	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0.11	+$0.08	71% 120-49 (169)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	— 10-4 (14)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$406.57

Value

$131.68

PnL

+$207.25

Record

69%

182-81 (263)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$49.29

Value

$52.89

PnL

+$3.6

Record

49%

191-196 (387)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$49.5

Value

$49.9

PnL

+$0.4

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.18

Record

29%

63-155 (218)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.08

Record

71%

120-49 (169)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

—

10-4 (14)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.