Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on November 11?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$398.08

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 92.3¢

+25% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,633

Combined PnL+$458.05

No3 traders

Total Value$35.88

Total Shares695

Combined PnL-$59.97

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 73.3¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$457.67	65% 60-33 (93)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 91.3¢	$73.89	$64.09	+$0.38	66% 4111-2135 (6246)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Noavg 14.8¢	$92.22	$29.2	-$63.02	— 8-10 (18)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 4.5¢	$2.25	$4.18	+$1.92	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 4.6¢	$1.38	$2.51	+$1.13	27% 936-2514 (3450)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$2,844.09

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$457.67

Record

65%

60-33 (93)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.89

Value

$64.09

PnL

+$0.38

Record

66%

4111-2135 (6246)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Invested

$92.22

Value

$29.2

PnL

-$63.02

Record

—

8-10 (18)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$1.92

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$1.13

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.